Ask He = ASCII

il Moto

2010-06-22T20:33:00.000-07:00

We acquired a second vehicle. It is fun, gets near 60mpg, reliable, and cheap to insure. A year old with 1,100 miles. It cost $2000 less than new. Conventional wisdom says the first 1,000 miles on any vehicle are the worst. It is capable of reaching in excess of 60,000 miles before consideration of a new vehicle. -Which isn't much different than purchasing a Dodge.

For those which are familiar with how motorbikes are priced, you might feel $3,750 is significant. Comparatively, the 1982 bike I acquired a year ago was $1,000 out of pocket. Had to sell, was not worth the cost of fixing the cost to repair an oil leak. Sold at auction @ $500.

There is a good amount of confidence one has when they know everything works. Hearing the appropriate sounds. The winding of the motor, click of the buttons, and satisfying gear changes as it should straight from the factory. Knowing a replacement tire or battery or spark plug or brake pad or head lamp isn't right around the corner.

If you care about such matters, I will explain the process of decision.

Can't get any easier to find parts than a bike that hasn't changed much in 20 years worth of making the same model and selling to over a dozen countries. Ample aftermarket parts and tips. This does not come with a windscreen. Which screen looks good on the bike and is durable? There are a handful of different luggage options. Which option should I choose which isn't enormous when I don't need it? Which aftermarket seat is compatible with standing on the footpegs and riding hours on end? -Forums got you covered.

The 650cc dual sport is an incredibly popular variety. Kawasaki, Honda, Suzuki, Yamaha, BMW, KTM, Husqvarna, and Aprilia all have entered this arena. This is not by accident. Agile enough on the side streets and maintains 75mph without significant effort.

Dual sport bikes as a whole tend to be more durable and reliable. This comes from the assumption the bike will be pushed harder. Climbing steep hills, crossing shallow rivers, crossing logs & large rocks. It is not uncommon for these bikes to ride in sand and mud.

In the price range, the European motos were out of the question. This leaves Kawasaki, Honda, and Suzuki. From what I have read, the Honda XR650 is the best of the three off road. Highly recognized running Baja races. It is understood the bike does not do tarmac well.

Affordability, reliability, and capability directs the focus to either the Kawasaki KLR 650 or Suzuki DR 650. Better long distance ride; KLR. Better off road; DR. Better gas mileage; DR. Larger fuel tank; KLR. Lighter; DR. Windscreen; KLR. Exhaust note; DR. Comfortable seat; KLR. Less things to go wrong; DR. Oil temp gauge; KLR. Handling at lower speeds; DR. Liquid cooled engine; KLR. More powerful engine; DR.

It is not an easy decision. In fact, I made offers on both bikes. If conditions were right, might be riding something different. Glad it went the way it did. The KLR sounds like a riding lawnmower at low speeds. The color scheme does not match my jacket and helmet.

I would not consider myself an expert on reviewing motorized cycles. Below is what some are saying about my new ride.

"To put it shortly the DR is a great commuter, not bad for an occasional belt around the bush, is reasonably practical for long-distance touring, is cheap to run when compared to a road bike, and incredibly reliable." -mcnews.com.au

"The reason you’ll be buying the DR is most likely the bulletproof air-cooled 644cc four-stroke, OHC engine. It is fuel efficient, especially in the low and mid-range, where the best of power is being delivered." - topspeed.com

"Right out of the gate the DR not only competed with the KLR, but distanced itself from it by a large margin of dirt performance." - motorcycle-usa.com

"The air-cooled motor spins up faster than the KLR and with more punch everywhere in the rev range." - motorcycle-usa.com

Engine 644 cc, 4-stroke, single cylinder, SOHC, 4-valve, air/oil cooled, 9.5:1 compression
Power 43 hp (32 kW)
Suspension Telescopic fork, link type swingarm
Weight 865 mm (34.1 in)
Overall Height 1195 mm (47.0 in), Low seat 1155mm (45.5 in.)
Seat Height 885 mm (34.8 in), Low seat 845 mm (33.0 in.)
Weight 147 kg (320 lb)
Fuel capacity 13 l (3.4 US gal)

But nothing is perfect. From the factory the hand grips cause blisters (PITA to remove throttle side), seat is hard and narrow, foot pegs are narrow and positioned too high. It also, doesn't come with a skid plate. Replaced the hand grips (had to get a 2nd set -first install failed), new seat, and lowered pegs. Cost $520. Ride on the highway enough times and you'll feel the need to install a windscreen. This is another $150. Good thing I grabbed the bike for less than retail to cover these costs.

One might point out the more comfortable seat and grips, skid plate, and windscreen are standard in the KLR. This makes the Kawasaki a better value, right? I don't know about that. I feel the stronger motor and handling are much more expensive to enhance than the comfort of the bike. If I had the Kawasaki, I think I would quickly install a different muffler.

An extra appreciation of my bike was when I swapped bikes with my brother and his KLR. He seemed to find it more exhilarating kicking up dirt than his own.

I think the Suzuki looks better, especially when I installed a supermoto front fender. Have received a handful of compliments.

Panorama Pictures

2010-03-28T10:13:00.000-07:00

Courtesy of The Adventures of Kristin & Adam

Stocks I am watching

2010-01-18T18:22:00.000-08:00

Short Play
TLL (enter 15.02, stop 14.52, target 19.22 [28% v 3.4%])

Healthcare & Pharma Play
IYH (enter 65.25, stop 63.46, target 69.89 [2.8% v 7.1%])
PPH (enter 66.72, stop 65.29, target 71.06 [2.2% v 6.5%])

Banking Play
KRE (enter 22.77, stop 22.01, target 29.35 [3.5% v 28.9%])
KBE (enter 22.28, stop 21.57, target 30.44 [3.3% v 36.6%])

Retail Play
XLY (enter 29.53, stop 28.61, target 32.73 [3.2% v 10.8%])
XLP (enter 26.53, stop 25.69, target 28.12 [3.3% v 6%])

Commodity Trend Play
IYK (enter 55.49, stop 53.91, target 60.36 [8.7% v 2.9%])
IYM (enter 57.51, stop 55.89, target 71.82 [24.9% v 2.9%])
XME (enter 51.30, stop 47.37, target 70.19 [36.8% v 8.3%])
COW (enter 28.28, stop 27.27, target 33.12 [17.11% v 3.7%])

Cable box 3 digit code

2008-02-08T07:21:00.000-08:00

Went through 30 numbers to eventually find 3 digit programming code is: 107

I figure posting this information would assist someone.

Stock Trade Suggestions

2007-11-02T20:24:00.000-07:00

I haven't done this in a while. I looked for some possible stock trades this afternoon. I included Friday's close as an simple entry price (technicians would use hourly supports as better entries). Included a profit objective and a correlating Rate on Investment (not including taxes and fees).

ADCT Communications Equipment
18.60 move towards 19.55
4.8%

HTCH Computer Storage Devices
24.50 move towards 25.95
5.5%

LF Recreational Products
7.64 move towards 9.11
16%

VCI Advertising
10.58 move towards 11.33
6.6%

NOVB Regional Bank
15.75 move towards 17.60
10.5%

Stocks Listed Above in a evenly weighted portfolio should yield 8.68% in the next few weeks. Obviously sell the stock once it hits the profit objective and sell stock if it has lost value for 3 consecutive days.

Texas, Debt, Government, Observation, Importance

2007-10-10T19:36:00.000-07:00

Texas protects their citizens.

I was talking to someone from Texas the other day. He states that he went to a mechanic. He paid the company $3,000 to fix his vehicle. He said he drove away then a week later he had the same problems. He goes back to the mechanic and asks for either a refund or the problem to get fixed. The owner/mechanic states that he already spent the money. Also mentions that he would not fix a car for free. The customer, like any other reasonable person, looks into what his legal rights are. He finds out that since the company does not have any assets you can not get the funds back from the company. The customer also finds out that Texas law makes it very difficult to go after the owner of the company. Especially if the owner of the auto repair shop does not have any assets.

The man I spoke with also mentions that there are others in the "good" state of Texas that drive without insurance. He states that when these (lacking insurance) individuals get into a car accident. The person who got hit is unable to sue for damages at person who hit them (if they don't have assets).

This policy encourages people to be poor. According to what this man said, nobody in Texas can be sued for damages if they are living in poverty.

Debt Purchasing.

I overheard two men talking while I was eating breakfast one morning. One man read to the next. "Sub prime debt is a serious issue in the United States..." Then starts mentioning that the company (supposedly they work for) was looking to purchase sub prime debt if it becomes affordable. The man mentions "sellers of this kind of debt are pricing it high..." "Our company will be looking to acquire sub prime debt once it becomes affordable".

I was just flabbergasted. How stupid. Of course the price is high. The sellers of the debt know that the so-called debtors will me more unlikely to pay off their debt in the future. With rampant inflation and job loss, one who was in a bad loan from the start 3 years ago is most likely in a severely worse situation today. These individuals probably are depleting their savings, soon without anything. On top of which, there are states that protect the debtor from paying the debt after a certain amount of time (no legal action can be taken). Everyday that goes by, that is one loan that may not ever be paid back. You might buy the debt at 10 cents on the dollar. If only 2 out of 10 are paying and once you add in overhead...

Is this the kind of investment that a large corporation should be taking with shareholder's capital? Absolutely not. The Alt-A debt securities market has a tremendous amount of risk and very little return IMHO. There are a lot of markets out there that have very little risk at this stage in the economic cycle. Can anyone say government-backed debt securities or Dow 30 corporate bonds? Worse comes to worse, either the tax payers pay you or the shareholders do.

Payment cycles.

Most credit cards start to only charge you interest once you receive your first bill. Conveniently enough, there is a way to increase your credit card payment date by 14 days. Be aware that this is a system only to be used by those who are financially responsible.

Most credit cards have a system in which you don't get billed for your payments in less than 30 days. All one has to do is charge something on the credit card when it is 29 days until the payment cycle to get an extra half month to pay off that purchase. That little bit of time could make the difference of one starting a new job or selling items around the house to pay for living expenses (i.e. avoid having the lights turned off).

Coupons.

I am fortunate to have a wife that enjoys cutting coupons. This saves us at least $30 a week, $1560 a year (if not more). We feel that this money is just lying there, all one has to do is make the effort.

It also helps to eat similar items every week. Of course monitor what items yield the most per dollar. Look for prices on common items at different stores. The wife and I noticed that some cleaning supplies are a few dollars cheaper at Menards and some frozen foods are at least 60 cents cheaper (per unit) than at grocery stores even after coupon.

Gasoline and Rant about Government.

I don't know about you, I think that gas is getting cheaper. That must be because our "Mighty Greenback" is strong. It must be because ethanol is taking away the demand. It must be because Big Oil has decided to stop gouging their customers. It must be because we have a lot of exports. It must be because we are paying off our national debt. It must be because the war is ceasing in Iraq. It must be because we have learned to stop consuming as much oil as a nation.

No. NO. No. Absolutely Not. NOOO! No. Partially No.

Frankly speaking, we are not producing as many goods. It costs the producers too much to make the goods that they are closing up factories. The workers can not buy as many goods because they are not as many jobs. Meanwhile, certain large industries are being compensated (with tax payer money) to produce their goods (Pharma, Insurance, & Energy). These goods are obviously inflated which prohibits small town factories from sustaining their humble operation. To compensate for the loss of jobs (and consumer confidence) the government creates jobs (homeland security). This reaction does nothing but takes away the purchasing power from main street America by creating over-paid, non-producing counterparts in Washington DC. Said tax payer money *should* be going for assisting businesses that have difficulty maintain cost of operation. So that these mid-America jobs can create goods that can be exported. Those exports are sold affordably (USD at historical lows) to other countries that appreciate their buying power.

Corralation to Observation.

One of my coworkers noticed a few months ago that time moves (or at least seems to move) faster the fewer times you watch the clock.

He has gotten to the point to tape paper on his computer screen to block out the time. Being that no more than 3 people at work actually look forward to working (unless they are front loading hours to leave early on Friday) on any given day, he makes a good point. I have done the same.

It forces your mind to occupy it with something other than counting the seconds. It encourages you to be creative with your downtime.

Reason I am mentioning it here. Perhaps the accumulation of money works the same way. The least you watch your pennies on a daily basis the more your dollars with grow. Obviously if you are responsible with your pennies you will eventually be responsible over dollars. But it is the point that the more you observe and focus your mind on how far you are away from your goal, the more anxiety and doubt you have about actually meeting the goal. -Just an idea.

I Can't...

Anyone who says "I can't", won't. If you want something say "I want". Then figure out a way to do it.

Everyone has just as much ability as someone else. There is an equal amount of good as there is bad in every situation. Someone my be better situated currently for what you desire. However, if you are willing to work harder for it then it is already yours.

When pursuing your dreams make effort to figure out how to provide others with what they want. Usually if you concern yourself with others, you need not be concerned with yourself. Within reason, of course.

Everyone needs to feel important.

Something that I was just reminded of recently. The next time someone acts in a manner that is absurd in your mind, ask yourself "How is this person showing their importance?"

People are motivated by unmet needs. Satisfy ones need to feel important and they should realize their mistake on their own.

Compliment what someone did good. Where you would normally criticize, just make general logical statements. For example, "People rarely get successful by saying they can't." This would take defensive pressure off the one who made the mistake and their decision. Then the person who you are trying to influence would be more willing to listen to your advice.

Nobody works harder...

2007-09-21T11:22:00.000-07:00

The wife and I like to save together.

We bike to work; saving on gasoline, & gym costs. When not biking, we carpool in a 4-cylinder Honda 4x4 SUV (24 mph top). Rarely do we drive more than 80 miles in a given week (some days we don't drive at all). Even-though most of our driving is city for which we get lower gas mileage. We offset the cost by seeking the cheapest gas prices from one of 5 gas stations we drive by. Also by the low cost of maintenance on a Honda (second highest resale vehicles in the US).

We clip coupons and use credit card rewards. Diners card gives Buy one, Get one offers. Or $5 - $7 discounts at "nicer" restaurants. We have probably saved over $100 (Diner's Card only costing $25) already this year. We use Speedy Rewards, 4 cents off gas and purchase it with our Menard's Big card for extra rewards (coupons).

The wife uses grocery coupons from the internet. Print off only the coupons you need. Usually can be used with other discounted offers and sometimes don't expire for 3 months.

-We get Free by mail coupons. Signed up for Noodles & Co. "Noodlegram" every year we get 2 Buy one, Get one entree. Also get a free cookie with the "I Voted" sticker on Nov. 1st. Menard's Big card offers free (or very cheap) hardware with rewards.

We often check the best price online (incl. groceries via Simon Delivers). When we consider purchasing some type of luxury. We usually spend days if not weeks seeking the best price. We use websites PriceGrabber & Campusi. We pay attention to daily internet deals from REI-Outlet, NewEgg, DealHack, & especially SlickDeals.net. -This might annoy a few of you that recently bought some items without checking for the best deal.

We prefer to see movies at the $1.50 theater (went to some free midnight showings last month). Or a triple feature drive-in ($7.50 a person to watch 3 current movies on a large screen). Or McDonald's RedBox. (Free movie rental with codes)

We take an effort to only buy what we would use, even if it is a "deal of a lifetime". Learning from our wasteful spending habits in the past questioning whether a purchase is important enough to use capital that might be better used in the future.

We expect to be compensated when service or product does not live up to expectation. And plan to follow through with a complaint. This year alone we got an upgrade to the latest Treo (755p), $55 cellphone credit, & $30 Comcast credit.

**Also keep in mind that there are website forums that also mention where good deals are found. (e.g. BargainShare.com)

On top of saving money we both have hobbies that have income potential.

-The wife sells scrapbooking supplies. This supports what could be an expensive hobby. She gets a percentage of what her client base purchases. It is also provides tax write-offs for purchases we would have done anyway (computer, camera, vacations, &c...).

-I track investment markets.

Below I have included some websites that give you a serious advantage in these markets.

StockFetcher 2.0
Significantly better than StockCharts.com Stock Scan. Programable scans allows you to custom a scan that has provided you with individual results. Not some overused predefined indicator results that a Contra-trader might use against you.

FXStreet: Currencies at a glance
Comments, Hourly Charts, Analyst Sentiment, Forum, & News Analyst comments all on one page. Perfect for someone who would like to ease themselves into the foreign exchange market. You can look here for some possible trade ideas.

In the past I have subscribed to InvestorFlix for some investing advice. Just like NetFlix, you rent different seminars (with PDF document of the seminar notes) then return them when you are done. You can rent 2 at a time and when you are done just mail them back in the envelope. Costing only $20 a month. An entire year costs $240. Each seminar would cost at least $500, some over $3000 to attend. This would have saved me at least $4,000 -possibly $10,000+ on training. These are different seminars with different perspectives from different people. You can learn what you like and create your own strategy.

Cut wasteful spending, Start saving, Start investing ... your time and your money... to eventually get what you want out of life!

bicycles and accessories

2007-06-10T15:08:00.000-07:00

The wife and I bought some new bikes the other day. We first were looking just for her.

The bike that she was using wasn't comfortable so she didn't use it very much. The breaks were usually too far for her to reach. The seat and posture prevented her from biking very far. She didn't understand how to effectively switch gears using the toggle switch that came on the old Peugeot.

For my birthday (later this month) I requested that we would go biking together. She was quite adamant about how she wouldn't want to go biking with the bikes that we currently have.

We first looked at the local small bike store. We tried out a few bikes. Obviously a price is a concern. They didn't have much of a selection of bikes. Which is usually a bad thing. For us on the other hand, we have very little interest in Specialized, Trek, or Cannondale bikes. All well out of our price range. -We could have afforded a bottom-of-the-line model, but it would lack features and would be a theft magnet. Strauss had a variety of Schwinn, Diamondback, and GT bicycles. All competitively priced and highly functional for our demands.

I am partial to red bikes. It is the colour of my old Bianchi, my Chrome messenger bag, and my long sleeve bicycle shirt. We originally had sticker shock at $200, but then soon realized that bikes don't come much cheaper than that.

The two manufacturers that we were interested in, after comparing the features and price, were Schwinn and Diamondback. We were not interested in spending more than $200 on a bike. Which quickly turned into not wanting to spend more than $250 on a bike.

The wife was looking through the women bikes. I spotted one that I liked, took it out for a ride. She decided that from the two in our price range that there was a Diamondback (wide tires) and a Schwinn (classic look). My only concern is that she had a twist gear changer (verses the trigger type) and front shocks. We decided that we would research the Schwinn Voyageur GS for price and reviews on the internet before we buy anything.

Long story short we got two high-rated (afford ability and reliability) hybrid bicycles for $505 (with tax). Edgewood costs $349 retail and Voyageur $329 retail. 10% off of already store sale price and $25 credit for the Bianchi. Saving $220 or 30% off retail.

Today we sold an old Peugeot Monaco that we purchased from the neighbor early last year for $40. We sold the bike for $45. We didn't put any money into it, rode it for a year, then sold it a year later for $5 more (12.5% gain). We would have kept it, the frame is too small for me and the wife did not like the posture.

I used the money to purchase a head light and tail light for the wife's new bike. They are close-out, last year's models. I compared them with the most current offerings from respective companies. To get the best deal, I looked at REI-Outlet. $60 retail (the price of new) for the head light, I bought it for $28 (41% off plus and additional 20% off special) The bike light retails for $13 (affordable w/o any additional discount), I bought for $10.19 (15% off regularly retailed price by signing up for a newsletter). After shipping and tax $46.98, regularly $83.75. A discount of $36.77 or 44% off.

As some of you may know (all 3 of you), it is going to be my birthday here soon. You can see my Wish List.

I would like to hear comments about what you think about what is on my list. For example: "Why didn't I choose the Mars 3.0 light instead of the RF6?"

The other day I biked to downtown Stillwater, MN from (East Side) St. Paul, MN. A 20 mile ride (mostly on the Gateway Trail). It made me think about how neat it would be able to go to Stillwater for a day (enjoy a wine bar or antique store) then ride back again. It takes about 3 hours to get there. If we took the entire day and allowed ample time to rest before going home, it would be nice to say that we went 40 miles in one day on the bike.

Once we both get lights for our bikes, it sure would be nice to bike at night when it isn't so hot with the son. Perhaps if the bugs aren't too bad and we have a bright enough light, we could take some unlighted trails. Have you ever seen a high powered bicycle head light go through the woods at night? It is like watching an alien abduction. A clear white light zoom inside the trees w/o making a noise, it's very cool.

Stocks that I fancy.

2007-05-28T06:14:00.000-07:00

For fun I created this Portfolio of stocks that I found using a new technique. I also included a limit order buy price to get even greater returns.

RSG Republic Services, Inc. (Waste Disposal)
Limit Order @ 29

PWI PrimeWest Energy Trust (Oil, Natural Gas)
Limit Order @ 21

VRSN VeriSign Inc. (Internet Software)
Limit Order @ 25

IPCR IPC Holdings Ltd.(Life Insurance)
Limit Order @ 29

XLY Consumer Discretionary SPDR (Financial)
Limit Order @ 37.5

Please donate to the HookShow if you make profits off of this portfolio.

Ranting & Conclusion of Profitable Portfolios

2007-05-27T10:44:00.000-07:00

The problem with the American economy, in my opinion, is that capital is too accessible. We focus on profits more than we do efficiency/innovation. All being the same, an organization (including the government) would be biased towards what produces the most profit in the least amount of time. As US citizens we have become accustom to this as normal behavior.

Baby-boomers

Classic music, classic cars, classic television shows, and classic style all were forced upon other generations by this group of individuals. The sheer size of this group is incredible. I believe that this is the sole reason that the 1980-90s were very profitable for the US stock market, and the real estate bubble thereafter. When this group was born (after the war) there was no other competitive nation. There was world exclusivity for US goods. This generation, I believe, got whatever they wanted -whenever they wanted for decades. During the 1960s - 70s there were not enough authority figures to suppress the movements of this group. During the 1980s (statistically the peak salary years) this group started investing their marginal income for their inevitable retirement. This created the 1990s in which the stock market was on almost complete speculation, stocks exploding well beyond any realistic technical or fundamental indicator. This group now is moving out of their houses, still spending like the 1980s (but on credit), and demanding that the US gov'ment bail them out of any fiscal responsibility. I believe that this crowd mentality is mostly responsible for destroying the stock market (pensions) and real estate market (purchasing beyond their means), killing younger generations (starting wars for profit), creating ghettos in America (too much credit creates poverty), encouraging irresponsibility to their children (encouraging college w/o a determined major), discouraging fair wages for other workers (pork spending to support this group), racism (Caucasian was the prominent race during 1960s - 90s), making health care too expensive, and creating unneccessary pollution. Mostly this group can claim ignorance to these consequences. Which would make it fair to say that this group of individuals are blatantly ignorant.

I believe that anyone in this generation had the biggest opportunity for wealth. And also believe that if one from this generation has not become wealthy from the serious advantage that they had (higher salary [compared to similar jobs today -adjusting for inflation], access to pensions & substantial retirement benefits [not afforded to new hired employees], job security, obvious investment opportunities [crowd mentality], access to capital, decreased environmental regulation, decreased foreign competition, &c...) they will never become wealthy and sustain their riches. I find that this generation was spoiled. It would also be fair to say that compared to current generations that this group is lazy, having never working as hard, as early in life as their progeny.

This is why I trade. I grew up with video games. I was bred to multi-task a magnitude of indicators (i.e. life, ammo, speed, direction, &c...), in which I easily translate towards the markets. I am determined to get what I want, but I must work very hard for it. It will not come easy, nor do I want it to come easy -for that would ruin me (read: Fable of the Bees).

And there is my tangent. I could easily go on further, but decided not to.

Now for my 3 month performance update on "Finding Profitable Portfolios":

Sector: Most Risky, Worst Time Frame Loss, Equal Win/Lose Buy & Hold
median return;
3 Month 5.35%
1.5 Month 4.6
Monthly -3.53
Bi-Weekly -5.28
Weekly -0.08
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly
median time frame return: .21%
ratio best/worst time frame: 1.01 (equal chance)

Trendiness: 2nd Riskiest, Higher Return Individual Stock & Average Portfolio
Best & Worst pick Bi-Weekly & 3 Month, Worst pick Monthly, Best pick 1.5 Month
median return;
3 Month 5.44%
1.5 Month 5.15
Monthly -4.19
Bi-Weekly -1.02
Weekly 2.42
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Monthly
median time frame return: 1.56%
ratio best/worst time frame: 1.3 (1/3rd greater chance profit buy & hold)

Oscillating: Best Profit Ratio Buy & Hold, 2nd Best Median Time Frame
median return;
3 Month 3.73%
1.5 Month 4.27
Monthly -1.38
Bi-Weekly -1.7
Weekly 2.09
best time frame: 1.5 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly
median time frame return: 1.4%
ratio best/worst time frame: 2.51 (1.5x greater chance profit buy & hold)

Volume: Best Time Frame Profit, 2nd Best Ratio Buy & Hold
Best pick Monthly, Worst pick 1.5 Month
median return;
3 Month 8.43%
1.5 Month 2.57
Monthly -3.31
Bi-Weekly -3.71
Weekly 1.28
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly
median time frame return: 1.05%
ratio best/worst time frame: 2.27 (1 1/3x greater chance profit buy & hold)

Conclusion:
When scanning for profitable stocks seek Oscillating (profit ratio), Volume (average return),and then Trendiness (individual stock).

USD $1,000,000.00 and other ramblings

2007-03-10T05:50:00.000-08:00

Today I have the opportunity to speak to someone of whom has "a million dollars" that could help me get "a million dollars." Which begs the question, what exactly is a million dollars?

It is a very large round number of the worlds most popular currency. One hundred ($10,000) bricks of $100 dollars. Nothing more, nothing less.

How could I get a million dollars? Objectively speaking, it isn't difficult to get a million dollars quickly. Two words; Fraud & Theft. There is also gambling & savings (Not really worth talking about).

To legitimately have "a million dollars" in your possession you must create a organization and/or invest in a financial instrument. This is probably what the millionaire is going to tell me. He is emphasize being a "marketing entrepreneur" (may or may not use that specific term) making a margin on an already successful product line by being the "middle man." He is going to emphasize on how increasing your debt will increase your return. He is going to emphasize image (guy lives in a 6,000 sq foot house)...

To be a rich "marketing entrepreneur" in America you must increase your debt load with business loans. Loans in case you didn't know, cause a great deal of inflation. They widen the wealth gap, thus encouraging bankruptcies and poverty. They mostly benefit large financial institutions in my opinion. You also must have an image. Which equates to unnecessary waste. It also emphasizes an unrealistic American entitlement. Encouraging people to purchase items that they otherwise could not afford. Not only do American entrepreneurs borrow irresponsibly, they encourage others to do the same.
To win, you must be on the right side of Usury & Technical Receivership.

Or you could invest in a financial instrument. US Equities encourage the scenario mentioned above. You can "vote with your feet" to these practices by shorting the US Indexes. However, timing odds are not in your favor. As they say, 75% of the time stocks go up -but go down 2-3x as hard. You could be a "bond bull" to discourage lending. You could trade commodities, however the US government and tyrannical oppressive corporations are involved there.

So what is one (who is conscionable) supposed to do? Live in a small Mexican, Spanish, Italian, or French village selling wares to whomever stops by? You want to make a difference in this life. Not just live in a peaceful existence. Until I find something different, I feel that the most conscionable investment is currencies. If there is a government policy that I do not like, I will be biased to short that currency given the opportunity.

Everyone must realize that net worth is the most important metric when it comes to success. Not automobiles, square footage in house, neighborhood, number of employees, or earnings per quarter.

In my opinion what is a true indicator of success is self reliance/sufficiency, and flexibility. The ability to work when, where, and how you want to whenever you want to. In contrast, one who has employees, vehicles, and other debt is only working for the bank and their employees.

Let's remember, (American) employees are a hassle. They rarely show up to work on time. For the most part, they will say or do anything to get the most out of you or your company. You need to pay them first (before your client pays you) whether or not you think they did a satisfactory job. In order to remain competitive, you even need to pay them (sick pay, holidays) when they don't even show up to work. They don't share in any of the risk, and take aggression out on you if you have to cut their hours. They expect you to sacrifice your own back-breaking profits to subsidize their mostly lazy lifestyles.

I believe the less you are dependent upon employees, clients, suppliers, or a certain market condition; the better your working life will be.

Let's not forget the real "benefits" of being a marketing entrepreneur (aka business owner). If you were to misinterpret real demand in any area of your operation, your business could be one of the statistics (9 out of 10 businesses fail within the first 5 years).

So does that mean that you should be a hippie then? In some ways, yes. A hippie with a high net worth. You must maximize all the capital (labor, land, & money) that you have. Does it means that you need to make your own window cleaner, laundry soap, install solar panels, drive a hybrid vehicle, or have an organic garden for natural remedies? Yea. That is what I am saying. Anything (responsible) to maximize your dollar.

You also need to have an extensive knowledge of market reaction to exogenous conditions. If it's raining in Brazil, buy Starbucks. You may ask, how am I providing jobs if all I do is invest in the companies that provide the jobs. The answer is, I provide liquidity. I provide companies and individuals the capital to invest in markets that have an anticipation of growth. Capital naturally goes to the places & people that make the best use of it. And let's face it people, there is only so much capital around. There only so much labor and land. The bank may print more money, but every succeeding dollar has less value. So you got to be smarter and work harder than your neighbor.

Some less socially responsible ways that people have maximized their dollars are: putting soup kitchens in populated cities to attract a larger employee base thus equating to lower wages, employing temp workers to avoid paying benefits, employing workers that are commission only to avoid paying them first (only after the company gets thier profits), and the list goes on....

These are horrible ideas. Especially when productivity is decreases every time an employee feels that they are not getting what they deserve.

As the face on the C-note says, "There are two things you can't avoid in life, dead & taxes." Taxes will be largest expense you will make during your life. I heard (forgot where) that in the 1940s only 5% of the people paid taxes. It seems like every year the government gets more greedy, oppressing hardworking citizens for irresponsible pork spending. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Welfare programs, War on Terror -the list goes on. I am not here to argue the Politics, just the point that taxes discourage investment / free market enterprise.

Taxes can make a profitable venture into one that barely keeps up with inflation. I will explain two examples of this. Rental Real Estate & Day Trading Stocks.

If you have rental Real Estate property, according to the recent tax laws, you must pay capital gains on every unit of property being rented. Who would want to put money in their rental units if they are just going to be paying taxes for any returns on those units? By contrast, capital gains taxes from the house that you live in can be deferred into your next property. So why would someone want to invest in doing upgrades to one's rental real estate if they are just going to be taxed on any increase in evaluation? They wouldn't. I feel that this type of policy encourages apartment slums.

Taxation has also made day trading stocks (buying the equity, not stock options) a losers game. You get taxed as a short term investments on top of trading fees. That means that in order for your day trades to be worth while, you need to be getting a much greater ROI to make up for the higher taxation. In most cases, after fees and taxation, you would be better putting your money in a dividend yielding ETF for the year (getting appreciation for the fund and dividends to reinvest).

On a side note, publicly traded stocks are not a physical asset. Prices are determined entirely by comparisons & speculation. Even the most seasoned stock trader loses sleep now and then. Especially if the stock is more than 35% owned by institutions. US stocks go up 75% of the time, but go down twice as fast. If you aren't diversified, than the odds are better in Vegas.

Finding Profitable Portfolios

2007-02-18T19:10:00.000-08:00

I love to maximize time. I am more than willing to spend 8 hours one day to save 10 hours or more later. So that is what this is about

A coworker of mine has offered to pay a percentage of profits from my picks. Usually when I pick stocks, I go between looking at price movement/volume with some other exogenous factor. As the last set of picks went, I realized that sometimes my so-called "Long Term" trades yield more than the "Short Term". In order to extract which factors truly make wise trades, I have made the following list. Each one originated by a Stock Screen weighted in it's own category.

Sector:
LFL 75.25
FCN 33.09
TALX 35.95
CEN 34.25
NHP 34.26
PKY 56.53
TCO 62.63
SPAR 22.97
CTB 16.56
CG 72.93
AGU 38.77
MOS 25.23

Trendy:
SABA 7.62
TRIB 9.88
ICGE 11.77
EXFO 7.28
NXST 7.50
CRAY 13.61
IBAS 9.96
ISPH 7.83
CHR 7.58
MPP 10.70
MPWR 13.71
RAMR 16.03
SPIR 9.32

Oscillating:
QCOM 42.51
SIAL 41.62
ORLY 34.66
SGMS 34.14
LNDC 13.40
ACLS 7.64
HON 47.83
LDG 46.52
CPF 39.96
NWL 31.51
LUK 28.50
HBI 26.78
CHR 7.58

Volume:
BOBE 36.64
TLEO 15.13
DMRC 12.20
SHG 122.01
BAM 54.40
TIN 53.16
GR 50.85
ADP 50.96
AET 45.61
NWL 31.51
TRW 29.26
JNS 22.30
BKC 22.61

After a couple of weeks or months, we will gauge the median returns. If the returns are substantial enough, I might even send out a newsletter. At first, it would be free. -It does take a bit of time to distill and filter these down. Let's call them Adam's Lucky 13 (on Sector, Trendy, Oscillating, Volume).

And as always, if you make some money off of these picks... please contribute to the HookShow Podcast.

Some more stocks, bleh...

2007-02-01T20:40:00.000-08:00

I am sure that there are not very many people like my stock pick posts. Even I can admit that it is not all that exciting.

I could include the words "Boo-ya Skee-Daddy" in with the post. -Maybe I would get some comments to my picks. Possibly people might think that it is easy to pick stocks (US equities), and therefore are not impressed. Perhaps there are those who don't care about so called business and would rather spend thier free time discussing the lastest installment of "I love New York" or the Superbowl.

Here are some picks I found tonight for a co-worker.

Short Term (take profits of 10% -20% and never look back)

PANC 4.19 profit target 5.30 (possibly 6.79) 20.9% (possibly 38.3%)
VIRL 8.33 profit target 9.25 (possibly more) 9.94%
pay attention to these daily, then could easily go against you if you don't pay attention -high returns = high risk

Long Term (monitor performance ever 2 or 3 days paying attention to price action & volume)

FCEL 6.64
RADS 11.37
ride these until a significant sign of weakness

And as always, if you make some money off of these picks... please contribute to the HookShow Podcast.

some US equities I like

2006-12-17T18:53:00.000-08:00

Did some researching for favorable stocks today. It is one of those things that I do as a casual hobby. Not that I like the United States publicly traded equity market all that much. One of those things that keeps me up on my 'game' while I wait until Sunday 4pm CST for Sydney to open. I chose the following portfolio as for diversity and growth (both fundamentally and technically).

I accept no personal responsibility if these individual stocks go down.

ABM Business Service 23.12
HCP Real Estate Investment Trust 36.07
EWM Malaysia Index Fund 9.33
GF New Germany Index Fund 14.18
SEE Packaging & Containers 63.11

(wait for pullback)
HXM Property Management 55.00

I apologize for the period of time between posts. Been occupied with the holiday season.

penny for my thoughts

2006-11-10T22:03:00.000-08:00

Two days ago, I watched a co-worker of mine proceed to drop pennies (copper 1 cent piece) in the trash. I was astonished. He was looking for change to get something from the snack machine, I offered him 3 pennies (not nearly enough for a snack, but that is what I was willing to give). Without blinking he cupped his hand around the pennies and dropped them into the trash. -Such disregard for money. It was like pennies are scrap metal w/o any resale value. Now, I could respect him saying "keep your pennies", but throwing away my gesture of currency... Here are some hard numbers for those who dislike the (highly liquid, metal is worth more than the face value) penny.

Saving 15 cents a day (an arbitrary illustration figure) after 5 years you would have 273 dollars & 75 pennies. -Not a lot, granted, for 5 years worth of conscience effort. After 30 years, 1,642 dollars & 50 pennies. -If you invested the $54.75 per year into an Index Fund with an average ROI of 8%, after 30 years you would have $6,800.51 (w/o taxation or dividends). Averaging 226.68 per year. The more you put sooner, the better the final number. Now let's be honest, that is a decent number... however, we all know that we could get the same returns with less effort (daily putting aside money) and opportunity costs by just simply saving $18.89 a month for 30 years.

What's most important about appreciating pennies is the derivative intangible benefits. It has to do with the fact that money goes to were it is better appreciated. Money has but this one prejudice. You must appreciate money in all of it's forms. Money is attracted to the one who takes care and monitors their money. "He who is responsible with little...." It all starts with a conscience decision today that you will never, ever purpose to throw away money. Unlike marriage, with money you should place emphasis on the details. Pay attention to how many pennies are being wasted every time you don't use a coupon or take an extra trip to the grocery store. Ask yourself if it is worth the waste. Of course, in this society we can never be 100% efficient. There is going to be waste, lots of it. But we should try to maintain it as best as we can.

But that is not all, coins have collector value (if you don't clean it first). In this article, the collector mentions that a circulated (one you might find lying casually in the street) 1813 penny could be anywhere from $200 to $900. It might take you a while to find this specimen, but if you already have money (penny) saving habits clearly established I am convinced that you will eventually find a gem of this sort.

If you have been monitoring my site, I recently put up hard commodities & bond charts. A casual mutual fund (buy and hold for the long term) investor might think that this is a waste of time monitoring these indicators. But I have to disagree. In fact, you have to be either living in a cave or blinded by pride to think that buy and hold is going to comfortably take you into retirement. There needs to be a balance. "Trade less, not more. Every trade is an opportunity to lose." -Larry Williams. You can't just keep blindly buying into a market. Strategize. Have defined rules as to what would take you out of a market, and what would make you enter a market. The exit is always more important that entering a trade.

Keep in mind that bond prices drop before a stock market "correction". Bond prices are associated with the value of the U.S. Dollar, the greedy capitalistic nation it is. When there is less demand in United States Bonds, the bears have essentially made their case for a devalued dollar. This could be because the government was 'printing' too much money (increasing the amount which banks can loan versus the cash in vaults, lowering the interest rate). Too much of this 'cheap money' going around makes the dollar itself worth less. When bonds go up, it is assumed that there is less money being 'floated' (interest rates make money less accessible, banks have more money in their vaults). When our dollar is worth more, US backed securities are very attractive to foreign investors. Foreign investors like to take advantage of the high yield on our interest rates. Banks increase the interest that they are requiring for a loan and thus they can pay more interest.

Gold on the other hand, correlates to fear. Those who (like myself) have a holding of gold (or silver, platinum, & palladium) assume that the dollar will eventually 'break' and that tangibles are going to be in high demand. The fact that our fiscal currency is only backed by what number is written on the piece of paper (by the fed), is discouraging for some people. In the years of 'yore', the first banks were goldsmiths. These goldsmiths where the ones who took deposits and wrote out loans against their holdings. When the foreign investors (namely European and Middle Eastern) start withdrawing large lots of money from our economy, our dollar will become depressed. This could be brought on by many different things. The most popular reasons for those world banks to lose faith in our economy is national debt, namely brought on by war & an aging population (pension plans & government subsidized healthcare).

Bonds down & Gold down = bullish.
Bonds up & Gold up = bearish.
-Larry Williams

Larry also says that you have to be fearful of the market. The more comfortable you are with it, the more likely you are going to lose money. Be ready to cut your loses in an instant if the trend does not go your way.

I know, I know...I should post more often.

2006-11-03T14:08:00.000-08:00

The was looking through Engadget the other day and was intrigued with the idea of getting a $500 notebook computer after reading how reasonable (performance and cost) they are. Already I am a "road warrior" (chrome messenger bag, Treo 700p smartphone, iPod)... this would bring me to a new level. Our current apple is a 1.6ghz (first gen, base model) G5 that is a couple of years old. Still works good for media (and reasonably well with videos -mainly because of the software). Whenever the wife and I go to a coffee shop and someone has a laptop in the corner... I always eat my heart out and sometimes I verbalize it by saying, "I should get a laptop so I can trade wherever I want. Panera, Caribou, the cafeteria in the St. Paul skyway, &c... Then I don't need to go home to do my studies and research." And, let's face it...it would be nice to have a cheap windows machine so that I can test any stock/currency trading programs (which are not made for the mac) and if it breaks after a couple of years... no big deal. I was reading the other day and it seems that HP has a strategy to make more $500 laptops, which means more competition in the marketplace... I have also been looking at the Inspiron 1501 models. Those dual core 64 bit chips seem very competitive (both in price and performance) to the intel's.

On a side note, I was geotagging my flickr site. It gave me the perspective that I haven't traveled much recently. -This will change when I start going to the Forex Trading Expos in Las Vegas and New York.

As a way to "save money" (-actually, we spent money), the wife and I purchased some impulse decoration items at Target that we were kind of fixing to get for halloween, but on November 1st. With a 50% discount (and a $10 charge we expected didn't happen), brought it to $28 (not including $10). -Not too bad when compared to the $70 we would have spent. We made a conscience decision that day (day after halloween). When we have a kid, we are going to purchase the costume the day after and take pictures of the infant in said costume the day after. Reason being, in Minnesota... it is cold here. Very young kids aren't going to be wearing thier costume door to door unless they are wearing a jacket over it. It's not like the neighbors ask the kids to see thier costume under the jackets. And all the memory photos are taken indoors (with decoration). The kid doesn't know what day it is or (if they are an infant) even if they are wearing a costume at all. Being that a good costume for a kid would run you $30, that is a $15 savings. In case there is some of you that don't appreciate the savings of $15; if you were saving $15 a week for a year you would have $780.

I front loaded some hours earlier this week and I got the day off. So, I tried my hand at demo trading on AC-Markets. -didn't do very well though. Lost about $200 then I decided to quit for the day. Mind you, I have been away from demo-ing lately, been reading and listening to podcasts. I need to get back into my demo trading routine again. Which includes waking up at 4:45 listen to the Forex Podcasts and reading FXstreetarticles.

My 9 to 5, I got to say... is amusing to say the least. It's nice to see that all the oppression that I had on my previous team not happening to my team. Makes me appreciate what "department" I am in. I was told by a coworker of mine that he thinks that the company will close shop by the beginning of the year. He had the assumption that the policies that they are making encourage employees to get fired. And that the firings is what prevents the company to pay for unemployment. A sound theory IMO.

I have heard a lot of "buzz" on the podcasts that the dollar could get hurt end of this quarter based on a bias towards low retail numbers for the shopping season.

Also would like to mention that anyone thinking about purchasing a house (you know who you are) should be strong with your bid and not be affraid to pass up a so-called "dream home". Put in your bid, don't be anxious... stand strong. There are plenty of houses out there. As humans, we should not love things. So a house is just a place to live, if you expect it to be more than that (i.e. a sign of status to your family/friends or "inspiration" to be a successful parent/employee)... Then I can guarantee that you will be paying a premium for that house. It might not seem like a lot to pay a premium of $10,000 to secure the house "of your dreams". But you have to realize that the $10,000 (or more) is going to be over a thirty year loan. Let's say your mortgage rate is 6% -over 30 years that $10,000 turns into $57,434!! Let's be patient people.

BTW, if you put the $10,000 you "saved" into an index fund (averaging 8% a year) at the end of 30 years (not including taxes or potential dividends) would yield you $100,626.56. However, I would be willing to excuse those who purchase a premium on a house because they did due diligence (or bid on a forclosure) for the house to be an investment or tax write off vehicle. We all need to realize that our houses are not assets, the appreciation of your house is a wash because of all the maintenance and taxes that you pay. All you should be expecting to get out of your house is a place to live in (and be reasonably comfortable) and retain it's value enough to cover the costs to maintain it.

BTW, the wife was looking into getting a new car insurance policy and we found out that Progressive reported that she had an accident eventhough my wife was the one who paid for it, yet we are paying Progressive a premium as if they paid for the accident. If you haven't searched for cheaper car insurance for the last 2 years, I recommend that you do... might find a cheaper policy. *shrug*

Just so you know that my comments are not a "I'm smarter about my money than you," I just want you to visit Financial Fix-ups. We would not wish these financial situations on anyone. Everyone of us needs to start being responsible about our finances. We need to consistantly evaluate and re-evaluate our income and expenses. It might seem like we are depriving ourselves of what we want or what we "deserve" today. But Believe ME, what you are going to have tomorrow for making the right decision today is going to be worth exponentially more than what you thought that you wanted now.

2006-09-22T19:10:00.000-07:00

Lots of stuff happened in the "Cube Farm" today (last 2 days).

-An employee (of whom requires use of a wheelchair) got hit by a city bus this morning. A few managers ran out to see what was going on. But, when the managers got back. They didn't even mention what was going on -only addressing questions when asked about the coworker. Wouldn't you think that there should be an official announcement to watch out for buses?! Or send out a "Get Well Soon" card?
-A 2 month old employee (Mr. Hayward) quit today. He was good stuff, a fellow bullion trader like myself.
-And our former secretary (which was away for some family/hospital reason) came back to work on the same day as she was scheduled to go for surgery. She was told that if she took the day off that she would not have a job. She has been with the company for 8 years and has a stump for a left arm (can only type with one hand). So when she came back, she was demoted to Front End customer service (60% dialer campaign). She has some serious physical limitations that prevents her from doing the most basic requirements of her demoted position. And might even have to take a pay cut. She was saying that she hasn't done Front End work for years (and it shows!)

The bete noire management is exorbitantly abhorrent.

But you know, I don't really mind it. That is because, I have stood around because it is in close proximity of where I live. And I have casually turned down employeers since I have worked there because they lacked the convienence. I am not attached to the job itself. The people that I work with aren't bad (a lot more honest than previous "brown-nosing" coworkers). Except for the inadequate management. Headed by Fatuous Maximus.

Unknown to the management, it makes me want to go home and work on my investment harder (esp. after they cut my hourly salary by $1.50/hr). I mean, this is just Earned Income! -I am not planning to make a lifetime career of selling my hours for dollars. It is better motivation to do this detested job now. Because when I leave, it is going to be much more satisfying! I have been with the company for 1 1/2 years and it (customers, company policies/politics, and business) keep getting worse every month and people keep leaving (started with 85, down to less than 30). -Doesn't make me want to wake up in the morning to go to that. On the other hand, it does make me want to rush home listen to podcasts for 3 hours, to demo trade, and check the market charts on my Treo (at work).

Don't fool yourself, there is no "high-paying career path". No "the company will take care of you". Student Loans = Corporate Slave. Why in debt yourself for something that is not tangible, that rapidly depreciates, and that value is determined by an employer (buyer). Some people make out comparatively well with schooling. Notice: you might have a higher salary, but chances are you are going to net less than someone w/o a degree and student loans. Instead spend the 5 figures on getting a tangible investment. Real Estate, Stocks, Bullion, or start a business.

Start listening to audiobooks, read printed industry books/magazines,... Something for heavens sake! You deserve better than that! I know I do. And don't expect your boss(es) to like your creative (money saving/making) ideas for the company. Rather be your own boss.

Ex nihilo nihil fit, labor omnia vincit.
"I know the price of success: dedication, hard work, and an unremitting devotion to the things you want to see happen." -Frank Lloyd Wright

2006-09-19T08:49:00.000-07:00

Let me recommend a hot beverage for those of you who are experiencing a decline in the temperature. Harney & Sons tea. I recommend mixing the Indian Nimbu with the Bangkok in a pitcher. Together they create a complex yet light bouquet of lemon, ginger, coconut, carmel... very refreshing.
Starbucks/B&N discount buy 2 get 1 free

Did some yardwork for my mom yesterday. Paid cash $40. Not too shabby. Now together with the borders/amazon giftcard and the $40... I can afford Entries & Exits, profiled on Vince Rowe's podcast! I am excited.

After going to Barnes & Noble and Borders this last weekend looking for investment books, I have found that the only investment material that I need (being a market technician) is Entries & Exits ... and a subscription to Stocks & Commodities Magazine.

Couple things to mention in this post before I forget. I got a call last (registered as Unknown Caller w/o number) night at 8:15 pm. It was a guy from Geneva. No, not Geneva from the state of Illinois or New York or even Ohio. It was a guy from Switzerland calling me at 3:15 AM local time. He was calling me about my demo accounts and when I am going to trade $$$. I eluded to how I wasn't quite ready yet and said,"...before I get in a gun fight, I want to master it with paintballs before bullets." Akward pause. He apparently had no idea what paintballs were. -Apparently they don't have them there.

As of my plans today. I am going to get a free lunch at La Casita Mexican Restaurant (won from a drawing). And get the oil changed on the 2005 Sunset Orange Pearl Honda Element. Instead of going to the Honda Dealership, I get the oil changed at Mobil 0w30 (superior than the factory Honda 5x20 oil).

2006-09-08T13:17:00.000-07:00

so as you can see, i spent some time last night updating the askhe site.

it sure takes a lot longer than you initially think to make a decent-looking blog page...

i think i up until 11 pm last night. boy am i tired, didn't get any sleep (possibly because of the full moon). And had to wake up at 5:30 am to get ready for work.

I recommend you to check out my investing links, i feel as if they give you a serious edge on the 'buy-and-holders'.

2006-09-07T18:03:00.000-07:00

This is a test of the posting capabilities of the Blogger Dashboard widget.

2006-08-23T08:15:00.000-07:00

100 blogshares of the Hook Show to the first 10 people who e-mail ASCII Adam with what investment advice they would like to hear about in the next podcast.

[Posted with hblogger 2.0 http://www.normsoft.com/hblogger/]