9.21.2007

Nobody works harder...

The wife and I like to save together.

We bike to work; saving on gasoline, & gym costs. When not biking, we carpool in a 4-cylinder Honda 4x4 SUV (24 mph top). Rarely do we drive more than 80 miles in a given week (some days we don't drive at all). Even-though most of our driving is city for which we get lower gas mileage. We offset the cost by seeking the cheapest gas prices from one of 5 gas stations we drive by. Also by the low cost of maintenance on a Honda (second highest resale vehicles in the US).

We clip coupons and use credit card rewards. Diners card gives Buy one, Get one offers. Or $5 - $7 discounts at "nicer" restaurants. We have probably saved over $100 (Diner's Card only costing $25) already this year. We use Speedy Rewards, 4 cents off gas and purchase it with our Menard's Big card for extra rewards (coupons).

Menards Big Card

The wife uses grocery coupons from the internet. Print off only the coupons you need. Usually can be used with other discounted offers and sometimes don't expire for 3 months.

-We get Free by mail coupons. Signed up for Noodles & Co. "Noodlegram" every year we get 2 Buy one, Get one entree. Also get a free cookie with the "I Voted" sticker on Nov. 1st. Menard's Big card offers free (or very cheap) hardware with rewards.

We often check the best price online (incl. groceries via Simon Delivers). When we consider purchasing some type of luxury. We usually spend days if not weeks seeking the best price. We use websites PriceGrabber & Campusi. We pay attention to daily internet deals from REI-Outlet, NewEgg, DealHack, & especially SlickDeals.net. -This might annoy a few of you that recently bought some items without checking for the best deal.



We prefer to see movies at the $1.50 theater (went to some free midnight showings last month). Or a triple feature drive-in ($7.50 a person to watch 3 current movies on a large screen). Or McDonald's RedBox. (Free movie rental with codes)



We take an effort to only buy what we would use, even if it is a "deal of a lifetime". Learning from our wasteful spending habits in the past questioning whether a purchase is important enough to use capital that might be better used in the future.

We expect to be compensated when service or product does not live up to expectation. And plan to follow through with a complaint. This year alone we got an upgrade to the latest Treo (755p), $55 cellphone credit, & $30 Comcast credit.

**Also keep in mind that there are website forums that also mention where good deals are found. (e.g. BargainShare.com)

On top of saving money we both have hobbies that have income potential.

-The wife sells scrapbooking supplies. This supports what could be an expensive hobby. She gets a percentage of what her client base purchases. It is also provides tax write-offs for purchases we would have done anyway (computer, camera, vacations, &c...).

-I track investment markets.

Below I have included some websites that give you a serious advantage in these markets.


StockFetcher 2.0
Significantly better than StockCharts.com Stock Scan. Programable scans allows you to custom a scan that has provided you with individual results. Not some overused predefined indicator results that a Contra-trader might use against you.

FXStreet: Currencies at a glance
Comments, Hourly Charts, Analyst Sentiment, Forum, & News Analyst comments all on one page. Perfect for someone who would like to ease themselves into the foreign exchange market. You can look here for some possible trade ideas.

In the past I have subscribed to InvestorFlix for some investing advice. Just like NetFlix, you rent different seminars (with PDF document of the seminar notes) then return them when you are done. You can rent 2 at a time and when you are done just mail them back in the envelope. Costing only $20 a month. An entire year costs $240. Each seminar would cost at least $500, some over $3000 to attend. This would have saved me at least $4,000 -possibly $10,000+ on training. These are different seminars with different perspectives from different people. You can learn what you like and create your own strategy.



Cut wasteful spending, Start saving, Start investing ... your time and your money... to eventually get what you want out of life!

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5.27.2007

Ranting & Conclusion of Profitable Portfolios

The problem with the American economy, in my opinion, is that capital is too accessible. We focus on profits more than we do efficiency/innovation. All being the same, an organization (including the government) would be biased towards what produces the most profit in the least amount of time. As US citizens we have become accustom to this as normal behavior.


Baby-boomers

Classic music, classic cars, classic television shows, and classic style all were forced upon other generations by this group of individuals. The sheer size of this group is incredible. I believe that this is the sole reason that the 1980-90s were very profitable for the US stock market, and the real estate bubble thereafter. When this group was born (after the war) there was no other competitive nation. There was world exclusivity for US goods. This generation, I believe, got whatever they wanted -whenever they wanted for decades. During the 1960s - 70s there were not enough authority figures to suppress the movements of this group. During the 1980s (statistically the peak salary years) this group started investing their marginal income for their inevitable retirement. This created the 1990s in which the stock market was on almost complete speculation, stocks exploding well beyond any realistic technical or fundamental indicator. This group now is moving out of their houses, still spending like the 1980s (but on credit), and demanding that the US gov'ment bail them out of any fiscal responsibility. I believe that this crowd mentality is mostly responsible for destroying the stock market (pensions) and real estate market (purchasing beyond their means), killing younger generations (starting wars for profit), creating ghettos in America (too much credit creates poverty), encouraging irresponsibility to their children (encouraging college w/o a determined major), discouraging fair wages for other workers (pork spending to support this group), racism (Caucasian was the prominent race during 1960s - 90s), making health care too expensive, and creating unneccessary pollution. Mostly this group can claim ignorance to these consequences. Which would make it fair to say that this group of individuals are blatantly ignorant.

I believe that anyone in this generation had the biggest opportunity for wealth. And also believe that if one from this generation has not become wealthy from the serious advantage that they had (higher salary [compared to similar jobs today -adjusting for inflation], access to pensions & substantial retirement benefits [not afforded to new hired employees], job security, obvious investment opportunities [crowd mentality], access to capital, decreased environmental regulation, decreased foreign competition, &c...) they will never become wealthy and sustain their riches. I find that this generation was spoiled. It would also be fair to say that compared to current generations that this group is lazy, having never working as hard, as early in life as their progeny.

This is why I trade. I grew up with video games. I was bred to multi-task a magnitude of indicators (i.e. life, ammo, speed, direction, &c...), in which I easily translate towards the markets. I am determined to get what I want, but I must work very hard for it. It will not come easy, nor do I want it to come easy -for that would ruin me (read: Fable of the Bees).

And there is my tangent. I could easily go on further, but decided not to.


Now for my 3 month performance update on "Finding Profitable Portfolios":

Sector: Most Risky, Worst Time Frame Loss, Equal Win/Lose Buy & Hold
median return;
3 Month 5.35%
1.5 Month 4.6
Monthly -3.53
Bi-Weekly -5.28
Weekly -0.08
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly

median time frame return: .21%
ratio best/worst time frame: 1.01 (equal chance)

Trendiness: 2nd Riskiest, Higher Return Individual Stock & Average Portfolio
Best & Worst pick Bi-Weekly & 3 Month, Worst pick Monthly, Best pick 1.5 Month
median return;
3 Month 5.44%
1.5 Month 5.15
Monthly -4.19
Bi-Weekly -1.02
Weekly 2.42
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Monthly

median time frame return: 1.56%
ratio best/worst time frame: 1.3 (1/3rd greater chance profit buy & hold)

Oscillating: Best Profit Ratio Buy & Hold, 2nd Best Median Time Frame
median return;
3 Month 3.73%
1.5 Month 4.27
Monthly -1.38
Bi-Weekly -1.7
Weekly 2.09
best time frame: 1.5 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly

median time frame return: 1.4%
ratio best/worst time frame: 2.51 (1.5x greater chance profit buy & hold)

Volume: Best Time Frame Profit, 2nd Best Ratio Buy & Hold
Best pick Monthly, Worst pick 1.5 Month
median return;
3 Month 8.43%
1.5 Month 2.57
Monthly -3.31
Bi-Weekly -3.71
Weekly 1.28
best time frame: 3 Month
worst time frame: Bi-Weekly

median time frame return: 1.05%
ratio best/worst time frame: 2.27 (1 1/3x greater chance profit buy & hold)


Conclusion:
When scanning for profitable stocks seek Oscillating (profit ratio), Volume (average return),and then Trendiness (individual stock).

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2.18.2007

Finding Profitable Portfolios

I love to maximize time. I am more than willing to spend 8 hours one day to save 10 hours or more later. So that is what this is about

A coworker of mine has offered to pay a percentage of profits from my picks. Usually when I pick stocks, I go between looking at price movement/volume with some other exogenous factor. As the last set of picks went, I realized that sometimes my so-called "Long Term" trades yield more than the "Short Term". In order to extract which factors truly make wise trades, I have made the following list. Each one originated by a Stock Screen weighted in it's own category.

Sector:
LFL 75.25
FCN 33.09
TALX 35.95
CEN 34.25
NHP 34.26
PKY 56.53
TCO 62.63
SPAR 22.97
CTB 16.56
CG 72.93
AGU 38.77
MOS 25.23

Trendy:
SABA 7.62
TRIB 9.88
ICGE 11.77
EXFO 7.28
NXST 7.50
CRAY 13.61
IBAS 9.96
ISPH 7.83
CHR 7.58
MPP 10.70
MPWR 13.71
RAMR 16.03
SPIR 9.32

Oscillating:
QCOM 42.51
SIAL 41.62
ORLY 34.66
SGMS 34.14
LNDC 13.40
ACLS 7.64
HON 47.83
LDG 46.52
CPF 39.96
NWL 31.51
LUK 28.50
HBI 26.78
CHR 7.58

Volume:
BOBE 36.64
TLEO 15.13
DMRC 12.20
SHG 122.01
BAM 54.40
TIN 53.16
GR 50.85
ADP 50.96
AET 45.61
NWL 31.51
TRW 29.26
JNS 22.30
BKC 22.61


After a couple of weeks or months, we will gauge the median returns. If the returns are substantial enough, I might even send out a newsletter. At first, it would be free. -It does take a bit of time to distill and filter these down. Let's call them Adam's Lucky 13 (on Sector, Trendy, Oscillating, Volume).


And as always, if you make some money off of these picks... please contribute to the HookShow Podcast.

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2.01.2007

Some more stocks, bleh...

I am sure that there are not very many people like my stock pick posts. Even I can admit that it is not all that exciting.

I could include the words "Boo-ya Skee-Daddy" in with the post. -Maybe I would get some comments to my picks. Possibly people might think that it is easy to pick stocks (US equities), and therefore are not impressed. Perhaps there are those who don't care about so called business and would rather spend thier free time discussing the lastest installment of "I love New York" or the Superbowl.

Here are some picks I found tonight for a co-worker.

Short Term (take profits of 10% -20% and never look back)

PANC 4.19 profit target 5.30 (possibly 6.79) 20.9% (possibly 38.3%)
VIRL 8.33 profit target 9.25 (possibly more) 9.94%
pay attention to these daily, then could easily go against you if you don't pay attention -high returns = high risk


Long Term (monitor performance ever 2 or 3 days paying attention to price action & volume)

FCEL 6.64
RADS 11.37
ride these until a significant sign of weakness


And as always, if you make some money off of these picks... please contribute to the HookShow Podcast.

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